The Weather Warrior

Preliminary chase schedule

Update (10:00am) I delayed my departure. Right now looks like the earliest I’ll be heading out is a little after noon time. Also looking to pull back on the scope/distance on my chase. I will be heading out for sure…just have to assess things as they stand and what the likelihood is for getting good footage and a good chase.

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010 at 5:09am EDT

Today (Wednesday)
5am - finish gear prep/caching
6am - load all non-valuables into car
7am - breakfast/coffee
8am - finish all loading of the car
9am - departure for Virginia and points south

From there it is hard to say. I did not get much sleep last night and will take my time getting to North Carolina. I may even slightly postpone my departure a little (9:30am) after the HOV lanes open up for faster more efficient travel.

Hurricane Earl is still way down there, and getting to North Carolina early means I will have the option to travel further south if I want to…perhaps to Morehead City / Atlantic Beach / Emerald Isle areas of North Carolina.

Look for more blogs from the road.

Tags: Earl, Hurricane, tropical storm coverage

Tough day today, but everything still a GO for Hurricane intercept.

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010 at 10:31pm EDT
First things first. For tracking and streaming video starting sometime tomorrow, you’ll want to check out: http://www.weatherwarrior.net/TVearl2010.html and again, don’t forget to follow me on twitter for the latest updates: http://www.twitter.com/weatherwarrior1 .

Lots of problems today, but still on time for intercepting Hurricane Earl in N.Carolina
Today was a rough day to get through. First it started out with waking up and getting ready to run errands and finding I had left the ham radio power cord plugged in (it draws too much power even when turned off) which had killed the battery overnight. So I started working on things around the house when in almost devilish timing, the house looses power. Almost the entire community lost power due to an underground power line failure. So I was very limited in the work I could do for nearly 5 hours. Of course it didn’t end there. Later tonight I went to go get the mobile weather station only to find that the remote cpu box(the cpu attached to the outside temp./wind/dew pt. sensor) was completely filled with water. I’m currently trying to see if I can rescue it before departure tomorrow, but I won’t know until tomorrow when I go pick-up a new battery.

I did get going though by late afternoon and it looks like I’m still on time for departure tomorrow by noon, although I’m still debating a push back to later in the evening (after the DC rush hour). The track keeps shifting westward ever so slightly, but the big help is that the storm slowed from earlier forecasts leaving me a little more time. I may just use the extra time to take the scenic route south from Maryland to Virginia.

Tags: 2010 hurricane season, Earl, Hurricane, North Carolina, storm chase

We’re go for Hurricane Earl intercept

Monday, August 30, 2010 at 5:33pm EDT
Won’t be an eyewall/landfall hurricane intercept, but we’ll be there.
Planning is in full swing and at the moment looks like departure from Maryland will be around Mid-day Wednesday with arrival in northern North Carolina shores around 4am-ish via Richmond. Travel further south may be done if time and fuel is there.

The plan right now is to start the intercept in North Carolina and then follow the storm north along the coast. I am crossing my fingers they will keep the Chesapeake Bay Tunnel/bridge open so I can continue north into the Delmarva (so named for the three states Delaware, Maryland, Virginia) peninsula and break off in either Ocean City, Maryland or Rehoboth, Delaware to return home. I hope to bring live video and images from all along the coast.

I’ll post more updates throughout the period between now and departure, including any special webpages for tracking my progress, although the default is always http://www.weatherwarriorl.net/TV.html when I’m actively chasing.

Tags: 2010 hurricane season, beach erosion, Earl, Hurricane, Maryland, North Carolina, storm surge, tropical storm coverage, Virginia

Stormtrack…really that bad?

Friday, August 27th, 2010 at 12:27am EDT
The new trend….bash stormtrack.org
While I certainly understand those who wish to no longer participate in some forums, it seems rather unreasonable as of late for folks to bash certain forums too. In particular it is www.stormtrack.org. The site has suffered a number of bouts with unneeded and ridiculous drama and arguments. Everything from use of amber lightbars to chasing styles, to chasing techniques. But in my observation it has gotten a lot better too. Interestingly too, many of the folks that bash it, also have participated in it or have their own drama and is hard to see how they can stand on the side and bash one when they themselves aren’t exactly the most friendly person themselves. I am not thinking of anyone person here, but quite a few actually.

Stormtrack.org is not the only site to see this, as I’ve seen similar from sites like easternuswx.com, accuweather.com, storm2k.org, and more. However, this is the only time I’ve seen it from a chaser specific site, and one as small as stormtrack.org.

Eitherway, I still post there, try to move the site to a positive direction and make it better rather than just be lazy and leave it then bash it. OK if you just want to leave, but it stupid to be judgmental about it. In fact this is about all you hear from me about it. Just a quick commentary on the matter. Back to the tropics and other weather news in the next blogs.

Tags: commentary, forums, Jason personal, stormtrack

Latest model runs for Hurricane Danielle & TS Earl

Wednesday, August 25th, 2010 at 10:45pm EDT
Quick post for a graphic I just worked up.
I like the South Florida Water Management Department’s hurricane model plots, but they don’t combine the runs when there are two systems, so I did:

Interestingly, after what I posted earlier about US threat being minimal to almost non-existent. May have to keep an eye on the far end of the model trends for both systems.

Tags: 2010 hurricane season, Danielle, Earl, Hurricane, Tropical Storm

Hurricane Danielle & Tropical Storm Earl & More

Wednesday, August 25th, 2010 at 4:37pm EDT
Atlantic Basin is active, four total areas being watched.
Hurricane Danielle has been watched for days now, but new to the parade is Tropical Storm Earl which was just designated by the National Hurricane Center. Additionally we have an area that is coming off the coast of western Africa (and I also see storms still further inland that might emerge later in the week/ early next week) as well as some showers in the Caribbean.

Danielle is still a week Category 1 Hurricane, and may be shifting it’s path slightly, but more toward the open ocean than before. Danielle poses a less than 1% chance for US landfall. Newly formed Tropical Storm Earl has one battle among others, because of it’s position close to Danielle (and behind), Danielle may be churning up enough Atlantic waters from the depths that it will a bit less surface heat to fuel Earl. And with all storms, wind shear will be monitored. Earl still could pose a US threat, but unlikely because of the various troughs that are currently over the eastern seaboard. However, there is still time and it’s just getting started so things can change.

The parade continues with showers just emerging off the African western Sahara desert. Those showers and storms are already showing enough bulk and characteristics to gain attention from various sources. I also have been watching the thunderstorm activity over the southern Sahara region further inland and predicted this activity as well as yet another possible area of interest that may emerge days from now. I’m no pro at forecasting, actually I’m pretty poor at forecasting, but it’s not hard to watch and see how this pattern is working.

Unfortunately, for the moment it looks as though we could have a repeat of the 2009 season with little to no US landfalling threat which means I go another year without a decent storm intercept. 2008 was a great return to the tropical chasing for me, and I was already in 2009. However the only chase I was able to do was with the US Air Force Reserves Hurricane Hunters into Hurricane Bill. Granted that was a fantastic thing and I loved covering that event (even though I have yet to sell the footage), it certainly was worth getting the experience and footage for later projects.

Now let’s keep an eye out for Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl….see what (if any) risks they pose and if I still need to be ready for an intercept down the road. We still on the upswing of the active part of the season. That peak isn’t for a few weeks in early September.

Tags: 2010 hurricane season, Danielle, Earl, Hurricane, Tropical Storm

TD#6 now Tropical Storm Danielle forms, quick to TS strength.

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010 at 6:04pm EDT.
How long before Tropical Storm Danielle reaches Hurricane strength among new questions.


The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression #6 Here is the text. Time to start following with a little more vigilance, even though US landfall chances are minimal at this point.

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS…WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR-85C…HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE…AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5…35 KT…AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7. THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.

GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCHOF THE DAY…THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. HOWEVER…RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION…BUT IT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY…AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO OFCI.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL…THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL…AND SOME DRY AIR APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY 3…AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW…THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY.

Tags: 2010 hurricane season, Danielle, NHC, Tropical Storm

Review: Hostile Winds by Mike Hollingshead

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010 at 2:58am EDT
Well known storm chaser Mike Hollingshead’s latest tornado & chase related film.

The second DVD I’ve picked up for the 2010 season (previous was Bullseye Bowdle review). This video was done is a similar way, pretty much in the “chaser highlights” reel, but with a little more editing and planning. Mike Hollingshead is a well know storm chaser, having chased since 1999. Over the years he has refined his talents, especially that for storm still photography. So it was with anticipation that I picked up this DVD, my first from him.

Overall I was not disappointed. Mike did deliver good visuals and great clarity in his shooting of video. However a few things hampered this production from appealing to a wider audience. I thought it creative to start with an intro, but with a lack of transitions, voice overs, and minimal graphics, it was a little cumbersome going form the intro, to the first segment, which was a winter ice storm in Iowa (I think, only heard Iowa mentioned). I felt like I was just thrown into the video with the assumption I would be able to know where and when specific things were happening. In the later chapters, there were quick and simple date/location title screen, but that was it for overall. While many chasers will know the exact dates, events, places and more, the common viewer tends to want a little more.

There were not voice-overs throughout the film; instead Mike relied on the limited audio of his own commentary at the time of record. It was bad commentary, actually when he did comment, it was mostly good. Mike is even speaking, and remains calm in the presence of tornadoes and other extreme weather, which is good. There is no point in the film where I felt the audio should have been cut out. However, the on-camera commentary was not consistent, and in the absence it would have be nice to grab some more information on the situation happening in the video.

Most segments and chapters were decent length, with a few exceptions. The first winter segment did drag a little bit. Also some of the May 22nd action at the end went on a bit, which was anti-climactic after the great 30 minutes of the main Bowdle tornado footage (which was extremely good). I also would have like to see about half as much of the July 23rd chapter. Again a little anti-climactic after the great footage from the previous chapter, but still good…just didn’t need as much time to show the highlights. I think even the chasers who like RAW footage collections may find this one a little on the long side.

Mike is good, for the most part, about using a tripod, or keeping his camera fixed (extensive use of a window mount in one chapter). I wish in fact more chasers, well more young filmmakers for that matter, would learn to keep the cameras more still. Especially with the advent of CMOS cameras, motion is just not as nice. There are a few times, but they are few, when Mike could have edited out some of the shaky video. Watching the ground pass by for a few seconds doesn’t add to the film. I believe that part way through Mike chase season he switched to a new camera. This may have been a good idea for the HD quality, but Mike didn’t seem to learn all the functions yet, especially the manual focus option, which hurt on some of even the best footage moments. The rocking back and forth of the auto focus gets a little tough. Some won’t notice it, but many will. Luckily the overall experience wasn’t handicapped by it, but you can see it.

There are great moments on this DVD, and that’s what I want to leave this review with. Simply for the fact of the Bowdle South Dakota footage it is a good DVD. However, additional little things add to the overall interests, especially for chasers. Thinks like the extreme lightning show toward the end of the DVD, and the sounds the CG lightning make in a few of the chapters is very good, and intense. If you don’t live in the Great Plains….you need to see how vivid and sharp the audio is. Also, as mentioned, Mike is a great photographer, and he ends the DVD in the last chapter with a small sampling of his still work, and it really does highlight his talents. I enjoyed this DVD, and knowing Mike, the next one will be even better.

Tags: DVD, Hostile Winds, Mike Hollingshead, product review, storm chasing

Coming shortly: Review of “Hostile Winds” by Mike Hollingshead.

I just finished reviewing Mike Hollingshead’s DVD titled “Hostile Winds”. Overall, a pleasure to watch, and will likely please many chasers. However, there are some weak points, I’ll have have those weak points, and strong points in the full review that will be coming up soon.

Tags: DVD, Hostile Winds, Mike Hollingshead, review

New Storm Prediction Center (SPC) director named

Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 11:47pm EDT
New Storm Prediction Center Director named, hired from within the National Weather Service agency.
Taken from the National Weather Service Facebook page:

Dr. Russell Schneider named as new Storm Prediction Center director. Schneider spent his entire career at the National Weather Service. He began at NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center before becoming the first science and operations officer at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. He has been the science support …branch chief at SPC in Norman, Okla., since 1997. Author and co-author of numerous professional publications, Schneider also served as an associate editor of the American Meteorological Society Journal “Weather and Forecasting” for more than a decade.

Dr. Schneider is filling the current vacant position, which is actually being held by Interim Director Dr. Louis W. Uccellini after the previous director Joe Schaefer retired during this past winter after serving as Director since 1995.

Here is a Washington Post Article on previous director Schaefer: Saving lives in “Tornado Alley” through state-of-the art weather forecasting and warning systems

This is some information that was posted when the position was open for applications:

Info provided by Preventionweb.com

• Source(s):National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• Closing date: 8 Mar 2010
• Salary: 119,554.00 - 179,700.00 USD /year
• Location:United States of America (Norman)

Job description

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is the National Weather Service (NWS) Center of Expertise for forecasting mid-latitude, mesoscale hazardous weather. The SPC issues both short lead time highly perishable products on an as-needed basis and more conventional scheduled products for longer forecast periods.

The SPC Director provides general supervision of all SPC programs and personnel and has the responsibility for SPC activities including technical oversight and leadership to all Weather Service Centers and Offices which are concerned with storm prediction. The SPC Director also:

1. Provides technical leadership and supervision for operational implementation of new technology and techniques for improving products and services in the SPC;

2. Oversees the evolution of SPC products and services;

3. Supervises the research aspects of the SPC, which focus on the development and implementation of improved data, forecast, and analysis applications and which require interaction with scientists from all over the United States and the world;

4. Acts as the representative in dealing with the procurement of facilities, services, and materials in Norman.

5. Arranges for the installation and maintenance of communications between SPC and other agencies with interests in SPC functions.

6. Arranges and implements the communication of SPC products to users.

7. Serves as the leader of the SPC management team and is responsible for carrying out the mission of the organization in the most economical manner possible while ensuring efficient discharge of operational responsibilities.

8. Deals directly with federal, state, county, and local governmental agencies on matters of mutual concern and is responsible for establishing working relationships with these agencies. Also deals with organizations and individuals in the private sector in a similar fashion.

9. Identifies developmental and training needs of employees. Provides or makes recommendations for the provision of such training.

10. Hears and resolves complaints not resolved at a lower level, handles disciplinary measures such as warnings and reprimands, and recommends action in serious disciplinary cases.

11. The incumbent must be sensitive to the goals and objectives of supervised employees and be able to communicate to them the goals and objectives of the agency. Also, the incumbent must participate in the EEO program and be cooperative in carrying out action items in the NCEP Affirmative Action Plan.

12. Oversees all matters related to the technical program of the SPC, the interface with the NWS field office, the public, the mass media, and the scientific community.

Qualifications and Evaluations

Qualifications required:

You must have one year of specialized experience at a level close to the work of this job that has given you the particular knowledge, skills, and abilities required to successfully perform. Typically we would find this experience in work within this field or a field that is closely related.

Specialized Education:

You must show successful completion of a full course of study in an accredited college or university leading to a bachelor’s degree or higher in engineering, physical science, life science, or mathematics.

Degree in meteorology, atmospheric science or other natural science major that included at least 24 semester hours in meteorology/atmospheric sciences or a combination of education and experience, plus appropriate experience or additional education.

You will be evaluated on the following executive core qualifications (ECQ):

ECQ 1 - Leading change.

This core qualification involves the ability to bring about strategic change, both within and outside the organization, to meet organizational goals. Inherent to this ECQ is the ability to establish an organizational vision and to implement it in a continuously changing environment.

Leadership Competencies:

1. Creativity and Innovation Develops new insights into situations; questions conventional approaches; encourages new ideas and innovations; designs and implements new or cutting edge programs/processes.

2. External Awareness Understands and keeps up-to-date on local, national, and international policies and trends that affect the organization and shape stakeholders’ views; is aware of the organization’s impact on the external environment.

3. Flexibility Is open to change and new information; rapidly adapts to new information, changing conditions, or unexpected obstacles.

4. Resilience Deals effectively with pressure; remains optimistic and persistent, even under adversity. Recovers quickly from setbacks.

5. Strategic Thinking Formulates objectives and priorities, and implements plans consistent with the long-term interests of the organization in a global environment. Capitalizes on opportunities and manages risks.

6. Vision Takes a long-term view and builds a shared vision with others; acts as a catalyst for organizational change. Influences others to translate vision into action.

ECQ 2 - Leading people

This core qualification involves the ability to lead people toward meeting the organization’s vision, mission, and goals. Inherent to this ECQ is the ability to provide an inclusive workplace that fosters the development of others, facilitates cooperation and teamwork, and supports constructive resolution of conflicts.

Leadership Competencies:

1. Conflict Management Encourages creative tension and differences of opinions. Anticipates and takes steps to prevent counter-productive confrontations. Manages and resolves conflicts and disagreements in a constructive manner.

2. Leveraging Diversity Fosters an inclusive workplace where diversity and individual differences are valued and leveraged to achieve the vision and mission of the organization.

3. Developing Others (New) Develops the ability of others to perform and contribute to the organization by providing ongoing feedback and by providing opportunities to learn through formal and informal methods.

4. Team Building Inspires and fosters team commitment, spirit, pride, and trust. Facilitates cooperation and motivates team members to accomplish group goals.

ECQ 3 - Results driven

This core qualification involves the ability to meet organizational goals and customer expectations. Inherent to this ECQ is the ability to make decisions that produce high-quality results by applying technical knowledge, analyzing problems, and calculating risks.

Leadership Competencies:

1. Accountability Holds self and others accountable for measurable high-quality, timely, and cost-effective results. Determines objectives, sets priorities, and delegates work. Accepts responsibility for mistakes. Complies with established control systems and rules.

2. Customer Service Anticipates and meets the needs of both internal and external customers. Delivers high-quality products and services; is committed to continuous improvement.

3. Decisiveness Makes well-informed, effective, and timely decisions, even when data are limited or solutions produce unpleasant consequences; perceives the impact and implications of decisions.

4. Entrepreneurship Positions the organization for future success by identifying new opportunities; builds the organization by developing or improving products or services. Takes calculated risks to accomplish organizational objectives.

5. Problem Solving Identifies and analyzes problems; weighs relevance and accuracy of information; generates and evaluates alternative solutions; makes recommendations.

6. Technical Credibility Understands and appropriately applies principles, procedures, requirements, regulations, and policies related to specialized expertise.

ECQ 4 - Business acument

This core qualification involves the ability to manage human, financial, and information resources strategically.

Leadership Competencies:

1. Financial Management Understands the organization’s financial processes. Prepares, justifies, and administers the program budget. Oversees procurement and contracting to achieve desired results. Monitors expenditures and uses cost-benefit thinking to set priorities.

2. Human Capital Management Builds and manages workforce based on organizational goals, budget considerations, and staffing needs. Ensures that employees are appropriately recruited, selected, appraised, and rewarded; takes action to address performance problems. Manages a multi-sector workforce and a variety of work situations.

3. Technology Management Keeps up-to-date on technological developments. Makes effective use of technology to achieve results. Ensures access to and security of technology systems.

ECQ 5 - Building coalitions

This core qualification involves the ability to build coalitions internally and with other Federal agencies, State and local governments, nonprofit and private sector organizations, foreign governments, or international organizations to achieve common goals.

Leadership Competencies:

1. Partnering Develops networks and builds alliances; collaborates across boundaries to build strategic relationships and achieve common goals.

2. Political Savvy Identifies the internal and external politics that impact the work of the organization. Perceives organizational and political reality and acts accordingly.

3. Influencing/Negotiating Persuades others; builds consensus through give and take; gains cooperation from others to obtain information and accomplish goals.

Fundamental Competencies

These competencies are the foundation for success in each of the Executive Core Qualifications.
Competencies:

1. Interpersonal Skills Treats others with courtesy, sensitivity, and respect. Considers and responds appropriately to the needs and feelings of different people in different situations.

2. Oral Communication Makes clear and convincing oral presentations. Listens effectively; clarifies information as needed.

3. Integrity/Honesty Behaves in an honest, fair, and ethical manner. Shows consistency in words and actions. Models high standards of ethics.

4. Written Communication Writes in a clear, concise, organized, and convincing manner for the intended audience.

5. Continual Learning Assesses and recognizes own strengths and weaknesses; pursues self-development.

6. Public Service Motivation Shows a commitment to serve the public. Ensures that actions meet public needs; aligns organizational objectives and practices with public interests.

Professional/Technical Qualifications:

1. Professional knowledge and experience in a variety of scientific techniques associated with weather forecasting (e.g., data acquisition, prognosis, analysis, program refinements and dissemination). Knowledge and experience which demonstrates a clear understanding of NWS forecast and warning services of hazardous weather and the scientific principles associated with mid-latitude mesoscale meteorology.

2. Experience which demonstrates a familiarity with scientific methods with demonstrated research capabilities and the ability to direct and lead the research of others. Experience with National hazardous weather programs as related to the planning and development of projects in weather conditions associated with the ignition and spread of wild fires.

3. Experience which demonstrates the ability to direct large-scale operational and research programs/projects. Ability to establish program/policy goals, processes, infrastructure, and evaluation mechanisms necessary to implement the organization’s mission and strategic vision.

You must be a U.S. citizen to qualify for this position.

After appointment, you will be subject to random testing for illegal drug use.In order to qualify for this position, you must possess a Secret security clearance. You will be required to make occasional travel.

Contract type
ES-1301-00/00, full-time permanent.

Tags: Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, Dr. Russell Schneider, Joe Schaefer, NWS, SPC