The Weather Warrior

Lots of interesting facts and statements made in this production, mostly that directly from Al Gore himself. While he talks much about “scientists” he refer to very few well know climate, and geological scientists. In may ways it seems more of a documentary on Al Gore’s point-of-view (especially with the segments from Gore’s past) than a true assessment of the current global climatologically situation.

Throughout the documentary a lot of data and charts are used to convey a message about the data collected, which is pretty much focused on the temperature of the Earth. This is an important factor, and it is good to see the various elements already affected by this increase, such as glaciers and sea ice. While data has changed since the movie, including that global temperatures have actually decreased in recent years, as well as new ice growth, it still points out that we currently at a significantly high level, and would take a number of years yet to reach levels back toward what is within the range of the historical data collected. Two things to mention however. First being that the resolution of the data collected in the past (beyond the last few hundred years) is not high enough for the time frame that is currently being assessed against, especially when only compared to the last decade. The other point here is the key word Al Gore uses: projections. Projections are not the same things as forecasts, especially when discussing forecast models. When I asked Kevin Trenberth, Head of Climate Analysis Section - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) about the modeling of the future in regards to Global Warming, he said there is no computer model designed for Global Warming forecasts, or projections. The bottom line is that any projection is only based on assumptions, and straight line projections which can’t account for all the factors that go into the affects of Global Warming. This statement coming from a big proponent of Global Warming.

Now, on the issue of hurricanes and tornadoes…well, he’s just flat wrong! Global Warming has had no impact in the recent years increase of tropical development (2004 & 2005). Statistically, these were just simple outliers in the data set. Obviously we have seen reduced, even below normal activity in the tropics and in the Great Plains of the United States in regards to severe weather activity. Such things as the ENSO (El Nino Sea Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), the Saharan Air Layer, and more are larger factors than Global Warming (even at it’s worst) can contribute. Such things as sea surface temperatures have changed little, and such events like Katrina are now understood to be caused by Gulf of Mexico local heat swirls that break off from the Gulf stream and enter into the Gulf, and in 2005 happen to coordinate with a hurricane. This was the same issue with Wilma the same year, and possibly even Hurricane Charley in 2004.

An interesting part to was about not seeing the change. While he did mention the various cities and initiatives being taken, his overall attitude seemed to be dark on the matter of folks taking action. Again, now a number of years after the production of the documentary, it would be interesting what his take is on the current push toward environmental issues. Does he see we’ve made that “turn” yet?

There is one factor however, which beyond global warming, that is not being looked at as much and that is the population explosion throughout the world. Because before any issues we would have with his concerns over sea level rise, is the fact that we couldn’t feed populations and other things if a warming of the Globe resumes and at a fast pace. It is certainly not helping with the ability to get everyone to better use their resources available locally if they can even sustain a civilized society in some of these areas (especially those in the hardest hit drought areas).

One other grip about the production was the mention of American auto manufacturers like Ford, GM and Chrysler. He was way off base on the MPG projects and such. While true the US doesn’t mandate at the same levels as some of the countries mentioned, we still met and exceed many other counties. We also calculate our mileage differently than other counties and have different needs. Europe for instance does not have the amount of land to cover for it’s transportation needs, hence the individual budget for fuel can be higher…when looked at a year comparison. Secondly, the demise of the American car companies had nothing to do with environmental issues, but more so that the foreign companies selling products here were given sweet-heart deals like Mercedes, who had the land for their plant in Alabama given (via 100% tax free incentive) and none of the foreign makes have union labor employees, who make half the salary, don’t get medical coverage at the same capacity, and don’t have the job security of the UAW workers…which the US Auto manufacturers are forced to pay. A large portion of the failure was also due to folks getting vehicles on bad credit provided by banks with no association with the US Auto industry.