For the few days leading up to this chase day, severe weather was being observed by a system that the models showed a potential for coming into the Mid-Atlantic Region. Places like Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee all had significant and tornadic weather the day before. While that in itself is never a precurser for severe weather here in the Mid-Atlantic it did show potential of this system being modeled and forecasted. The Day 2 from SPC was showing a good potential however and many did feel we might see tornadoes in this region.

The chase day began early in the morning checking models and SPC for the latest. One bad sign was when the SPC actually pulled back on the Moderate Risk, but it was still there nonetheless...as was the Slight Risk with a 5% broad reaching all the way into the greater DC/Baltimore Region. Finally, around 10am, the first line was approaching the DC area, from the north. This was quite early, and get me somewhat excited. The orientation of the main line of storms did show that there was plenty of time to get to the southern areas, which is where our target was. My initial target was Washington, VA, but I quickly realized by 10am that I'd have to forget about that target in favor of something further south.

At 10:45am I departed my house to rendevous with Mark Ellinwood where we made a quick stop in Rockville for a manditory errand and then quickly moved on down I-270 to I-495 to I-95 southbound. We wanted to reach Fredericksburg as quick as possible, and get ahead of the leading edge of the storms that we just fell behind in Rockville. This was a screamingly fast line, with forward motion around 60mph. Stormcell motion was SE so forward progression was ~ 50mph. We did manage to get ahead of the line and finally took a stop near Emporia, Virginia (14:05) just north of the Virginia & North Carolina border. I personally was having a hard time seeing what Mark had forecast. My limited forecast ability and knowledge lets me forecast traditional set-ups, of which this WINTER storm was not. From Emporia (14:45) we ventured further south on I-95 into North Carolina and at US 158 near Roanoke Rapids, felt we were sufficiently south enough and decided to head west toward the line (14:58). The thought was that with the system moving eastward at nearly 60mph now, we didn't see need to go far, we would meet the line of storms halfway. But that didn't happen as we continued west (out of the most favorable conditions) the line stalled to the north. Only the western areas were progressing. Now we weren't sure. It was a debate whether to return east to the better instability, lift, shear, etc. or wait. We U-turned (15:50) and took US 158 back west after stopping near Warrenton, NC. Since we had plenty of time now, we stopped in Roanoke Rapids (16:24) and waited to see what the trend of the storm line looked like. After the brief 20 minute stop in Roanoke Rapids we again headed west on US 158 past I-95. Again, we stopped (17:15) evaluated things, and this time again decide to make a U-turn in order to get back to I-95 and head south more. Once on I-95 (17:24) south again we continued 20 miles until exiting at route 481 (17:55) and heading east. The line was somewhat catching up now, and we wanted to dance with the outflow boundary that emerged from the main line of storms. The hope was still to see new convection from the new forcing potential now that we were in the area of better dynamics for storm development (even if marginal). We zig-zagged through local roads heading south, ahead of the line just waiting for the line to do something, and it never really did. Around 7:15pm (19:15) when we were near Farmville, NC we decided that it was as good as it was going to get and it was time to head home. We looped around Farmville and headed east (to get back to I-95) right into the advancing line, which wasn't much. The line never materialized in our area of chasing and our trek home was a somewhat somber one. However, it was a great road trip and the first time we ventured into North Carolina for a chase. Being February, there was no sting to it. If this had been May or June then I'm sure we would have been upset.